Tariffs, stockpiling, and changing supply chains push American ports into a prolonged slowdown.
New York, USA, 2 February 2026 – Container imports into the United States ended 2025 on a weak note, with volumes falling for the fourth straight month, and industry experts say the slowdown is likely to continue this year. According to shipping analyst John McCown, the decline is closely linked to tariffs that have reshaped global trade flows and pushed companies to look beyond the US market.
Inbound container volumes in December fell 6.4 percent from a year earlier to about 1.9 million twenty-foot equivalent units. This followed a 5.7 percent drop in November. McCown, who tracks cargo movement across the country’s ten largest ports, said the downturn seen in 2025 was driven entirely by tariffs and shows no clear signs of easing.
Trade uncertainty has encouraged exporters and manufacturers in major economies to reduce their reliance on the US. Countries and regions such as China and the European Union are increasingly strengthening trade ties with other markets, signing new agreements and adjusting supply chains to manage risk. The shift reflects a broader realignment in global commerce, described by ING Group economists as a global recalibration rather than a short-term disruption.
US ports still posted solid full-year cargo volumes overall, but every major port tracked by McCown recorded a year-on-year decline in imports during December. A key reason was front-loading. Many companies rushed to bring in goods during the first half of 2025 to get ahead of new import duties, many of which were introduced in August. Those stockpiles were then used later in the year, reducing demand for container shipping in the second half.
This pattern was clearly visible at the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest container port in the US. Imports there rose 3.3 percent in the first half of 2025 but dropped 4.2 percent in the second half. Early data for the first four weeks of 2026 show volumes down another 2.2 percent, based on preliminary figures from the port and Wabtec Corp.
Container shipping is closely watched as an economic signal because ships move nearly 80 percent of US international freight by weight. Rail, pipelines, trucks, and aircraft account for the rest, according to federal transport data. As ocean cargo demand weakens, freight rates are also coming under pressure. Analysts expect spot container rates, which fell through January, to decline further as shipping capacity outweighs demand.
Global trade, however, tells a different story. While North American imports fell nearly 4 percent year-on-year in November, global container volumes rose more than 7 percent. Imports into Africa jumped over 25 percent, while strong growth was also recorded in the Middle East–India region, Latin America, and Europe. These figures suggest that trade is expanding elsewhere even as US volumes lag.
The contrast highlights how global supply chains are adapting quickly. According to McCown, world container networks are reconfiguring faster than expected, with trade growth continuing outside the US. Forecasts for 2026 point to slower overall global trade growth of around 0.5 to 1 percent, down from more than 4 percent last year, although demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure could offer some upside, according to the World Trade Organization.
For now, the outlook for US container imports remains uncertain. While businesses continue to adjust and diversify supply chains, analysts say volatility in shipping volumes and freight rates is likely to remain a defining feature of the market in the near term.
