The Energy Futures Institute has officially published results from a new report named Are EV Mandates and Market Reality on a Collision Course.
Going by the available details, this particular report issues a warning that government-mandated electric vehicle (EV) sales targets in British Columbia and Canada could very well destabilize markets, reduce consumer choice, drive up costs, all while generating unprecedented benefit for car companies like Tesla.
“These mandates could end up directing consumer dollars straight to Tesla as the dominant EV manufacturer with vehicles currently available in Canada. That would be an unacceptable consequence of forcing the market in one direction, rather than allowing competition and innovation to shape the future of transportation,” said Barry Penner, Chair of the Energy Futures Institute.
Talk about the given results on a slightly deeper level, we begin from how it found EV sales to depend; by and large, upon subsidies. This conclusion was reached upon after reductions in government support across British Columbia, as well as at the national level led to significant declines in adoption, with EV sales dropping to 18% of new vehicle sales last month in BC from about 23% last year.
Next up, we must dig into the point of market distortions. If we entrust the report’s word, a lag in consumer demand, in comparison to government mandates, can force automakers to discount EVs heavily or reduce production of profitable gas-powered vehicles, thus causing losses, shortages, and price hikes for both new and used vehicles.
Another detail worth a mention here is rooted in the present infrastructure gaps, as public charging remains costly and insufficient. To give you an example, in Metro Vancouver, several estimates suggest that charging infrastructure investments could reach a staggering $2.9 billion by 2050.
“The push for EV mandates ignores fundamental market realities,” said Professor Jerome Gessaroli, policy researcher and author of the report. “These policies force automakers to sell electric vehicles regardless of demand or buy credits from competitors like Tesla, likely leading to financial losses, higher vehicle prices, and fewer choices for consumers. The result is an artificial market distortion that makes it more expensive for people to get the vehicles they need, disproportionately impacting lower income people. A more flexible approach to emissions reduction is required.”
Beyond that, the new report stumbled upon a host of policy and supply chain uncertainties. This translates to how recent shifts in U.S. tariffs and EV policies have created an unpredictable business climate, leading some companies to pause or cancel planned EV manufacturing projects altogether.
Not just that, the report also discovered a worsening income inequality. Putting the stated detail into perspective is a fact that EVs remain about $8,000 more expensive upfront, limiting access for lower-income buyers. Now, while there are subsidies in play, but even they have showed, time and time again, to disproportionately benefit higher-income households that earn up to $100,000.
Even if we look past the affordability challenges of an initial purchase, we would have to acknowledge how residents without home charging pay up to $0.39/kWh at public stations, a figure nearly five times the $0.08/kWh rate currently available to BC Hydro customers with home chargers who opt for time-of-use rates.
“Since 2023, B.C. has been importing roughly 20% of its electricity needs from the U.S. due to a lack of domestic generation. If fully implemented, EV mandates will increase electricity demand by the equivalent of two more Site C dams worth of power, potentially increasing our dependence on imported energy, leaving BC in a precarious position,” said Penner. “With trade relations at an all-time low, it’s dangerous to assume we’ll always have access to affordable U.S. electricity. We need a plan that strengthens B.C.’s energy security, not makes us more vulnerable.”
